Dengue, chikungunya, Zika

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Operation
Database unit
Value type value
Temporal resolution year
Data availability per spatial unit within the integrated time period
Shape type First Last Availability
Country 100.00 %
Region 100.00 %
District 96.92 %
Total 2015 2024 97.11 %

Analytical overview


Source information

[1 of 2] Aggregated binary risk map for dengue, chikungunya and Zika

Global aggregated binary risk distribution for dengue, chikungunya and Zika transmission based on environmental suitability modeling. Areas are classified as at-risk if predicted suitable for transmission of any of these three Aedes-borne arboviruses by combining occurrence data from 1927-2024 with climate, environmental, and socioeconomic covariates, accounting for spatial surveillance biases through a nested modeling approach.

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[2 of 2] The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever
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Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats.

Citation

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